Report on Development Trends of Chinese IC Industry in 2009
报告编号：17124 发布时间：2009-8-25 13:35:42
Introduction
The Chinese IC (integrated circuit) market still maintained the positive growth in 2008. But the growth rate declined sharply. In 2008, the growth rate was only 8.5%. It is the first time that the growth rate is less than 10% during the market development. Meanwhile, it is the fifth year that the Chinese IC developed slowly. From the aspect of industry chain, the immediate reason causing the sharp decline of the Chinese market is that the slow development of the whole machine output in the downstream industry. According to the statistical data (the first 10 months of 2008) of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People’s Republic of China, the year-on-year growth rates of mobile phone, TV set and PC were 6.7%, 12.2% and 17.1% respectively. Compared with 2007, the output growth rate of these products using lots of IC products declined. From the aspect of macro economy, there were two main reasons influencing the Chinese IC market in 2008. One is the financial crisis. The other is the global electronic manufacturing industry transferred to China slowly.
The market competition pattern didn’t change. The foreign enterprises including Intel, AMD, Samsung, Toshiba, TI, ST and Hynix still played the important role in their own fields. Most of the domestic enterprises are design enterprises that didn’t develop well in 2008. In the coming years, the competition pattern of the Chinese IC market won’t change a lot. The foreign enterprises will still have the advantages.
From the aspect of application fields, 3C (computer category, consumption category and network communication category) had over 85% market share in the Chinese IC market. Among those, the computer category had the largest market share. Although the printer output continued to decline, the growth rate of PCs output was not bad (the growth rate of notebook computer was 28% from Jan. to Oct. 2008). The computer IC market whose growth rate was nearly 10% was the fastest developing one in the 3C field in 2008. The communication products’ demand for IC mainly came from the mobile phone (its growth rate was 6.7% from Jan. to Oct. 2008) and other communication products. Because the growth rate of whole machine output declined sharply, the growth rate of the communication IC market also declined sharply. The performance of the consumption IC was just OK. Its growth rate was about 7% in 2008. For the other fields (industrial control, automobile, IC card and others), the growth rates declined due to the recession. The IC card field presented negative growth because the second generation ID card market shrank dramatically.
From the aspect of product structure, memory had the largest market share. But the price of NAND Flash and DRAM reduced its market share. With the influence of high growth rate in the PC field, the growth rates of CPU and Microperipheral were higher. While the growth rates of ASSP and ASIC declined sharply due to the increase of the product output in the communication field. In addition, the logic device, analog device, MCU and embedded CPU maintained to grow steadily.
From the aspect of future development, the semiconductor industry will still be influenced by the depressed consumption caused by the financial crisis within a year. Definitely speaking, because the semiconductor industry belongs to the upstream industry of the electronic industry chain, the financial crisis surely influenced the semiconductor industry in the third quarter of 2008 (the sales of semiconductor started to decline in Oct. 2008). Intel, ST, TI and other large-sized enterprises started to turn down the income expectation of the fourth quarter between Nov. and Dec. In 2009, the global semiconductor market is expected to decline for the first time.
The global industry is in the downturn. In this case, the Chinese IC will develop slowly. Although there are lots of unfavorable factors, the product upgrading, promotion of downstream application and government support will be beneficial to the development of Chinese market. Except for several fields, the whole machine output can’t grow quickly. Therefore, the growth rate of Chinese IC market is expected to be about 5% in 2009. Its development speed will be closer to that of global market.
However, in the long term, the semiconductor industry is still in the rising period of the industrial lifecycle and maintains to expand its scale in the future. If the global economy will develop steadily in 2010, the semiconductor industry is expected to develop well after years of recession. However, for the Chinese market, BBIC will maintain the preview prediction. With the expansion of the Chinese IC market scale, its development speed will be steady gradually. Moreover, its development speed will be closer to that of global market. Finally, the development speed of them will be in accord with each other.
 Contents
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